International container shipping is one of the most dynamic economic sectors of the last few years. Between 1990 and 2005 the container trade at the world’s ports expanded by just under 10% p.a. on average (2005: +11%). The sector greatly surpassed seaborne trade overall and even the growth in international air transport.
The major reasons for the growth in container shipping are, on the demand side, the increasing international division of labour in the course of liberalisation and the resulting trade movements; and also the rise in importance of goods eminently suited to transport by container. On the supply side, the considerable expansion of the container ship fleets and faster loading and unloading of container ships are playing an important part; they allow short turnaround times in port.
The growth in international container shipping will continue for the next 10 years, with an only slightly reduced impetus. We expect annual growth of about 9% in container handling up to 2015. The main routes that are likely to achieve the greatest expansion include intra-Asian transport as well as the routes from North America and Europe to Asia. In contrast, transport between North America and Europe will increase less strongly. Of the 25 largest container ports in the world, 16 are in Asia, only three in North America and six in Europe.
Despite the increasing demand for container transport, until 2008 freight charges will probably stay below the level of the last two exceptional years. The main reason is the anticipated massive expansion of global container ship capacity. Between 2006 and 2008 the available container capacity worldwide will expand by about 50%. The shipyards’ long order books for container ships argue against a rapid redress of the excess supply. Freight rates are still above the levels of 2001/2002, however.
The volume of total world seaborne trade – measured in tonne miles (the product of distance and the quantity transported) rose by an average of 3.6% between 1990 and 2005.1Maritime transport therefore forms the basis of the high, and largely constant, growth in world trade during the last few years. Compared with the dynamics of international container shipping, however, the growth in total seaborne trade appears modest. Since 1990, world container trade has expanded by close to 10% p.a. In the last year the volume of trade reached about 114 million TEU.2 According to first estimates, in 2005 the world container trade surpassed the level of the previous year by nearly 11%. This is a “weakening” in impetus compared with the years of particularly strong growth, 2003 and 2004, in each of which world container trade grew by over 14%.
Container handling is growing faster than containertrade
Worldwide container handling is growing slightly faster even than container transport. Since 1990 the growth rate in this sector has averaged 10.6% p.a. The higher growth in container handling is a result of the increasing proportion of the pure handling business. This so-called transhipment traffic grew by nearly 14% p.a. in the same period. Analogous to the hub strategy in international air transport, an increasing proportion of containers are being shipped to large container transhipment ports (hubs) by feeder services. The ships’ cargos are then reassembled and transported to other hubs or to the actual port of destination (hub and spoke concept). The main reasons for the increasing proportion of transhipment are the mounting importance of larger container ships and the associated economies of scale; as well as the increasing degree of containerisation even at smaller ports.3
In contrast, container transport comprises just the number of loaded containers that are finally unloaded at their port of destination. Because of the increasing proportion of transhipment traffic, container handling, which e.g. also includes the handling of empty containers, is, in absolute terms (measured in TEU) considerably larger than container transport (2005: 400 million TEU compared with 114 million TEU). The proportion of transhipment traffic rose from 11% of total container handling in 1980 to over 27% last year. In comparison, the proportion of empty containers handled in this period remained largely constant, at about 20%. The shipping and charter companies succeeded in keeping the number of empty containers at a relatively low level by efficient use of ships and by grouping transport at the large container ports. This is important insofar as, in the last year, each additional percentage point of empty container transport would have cost the shipping companies worldwide USD 650 million.
A slight weakening of growth in 2005
As with container transport, container handling also recorded a slightly slower level of growth in the last year. Global container handling increased by over 11% in 2005, while in 2003 and 2004 the growth rate was around 14%. As a whole, however, the exceptional performance of this sector continued even last year. As a result of the extremely high dynamics of container shipping, this sector expanded its share of all seaborne trade during the last few years. In terms of gross tonnage, the proportion of container ships rose from 8% (1995) to over 14% last year. As containers tend to be used for the transport of high-value goods, their proportion of seaborne trade by value should be considerably higher. Taking into account the dynamic growth of container shipping in the last few years, its proportion of just over 14% of the total tonnage in seaborne trade may appear to be surprisingly low. However, it must be taken into account that, measured by weight, oil tankers and bulk carriers (e.g. coal, ore) are considerably more significant in global shipping. Oil tankers have a 31% share of total gross tonnage and bulk carriers just under 29%. In addition, compared with the other types of maritime transport, container shipping is still a young sector.
The volume of total world seaborne trade – measured in tonne miles (the product of distance and the quantity transported) rose by an average of 3.6% between 1990 and 2005.1Maritime transport therefore forms the basis of the high, and largely constant, growth in world trade during the last few years. Compared with the dynamics of international container shipping, however, the growth in total seaborne trade appears modest. Since 1990, world container trade has expanded by close to 10% p.a. In the last year the volume of trade reached about 114 million TEU.2 According to first estimates, in 2005 the world container trade surpassed the level of the previous year by nearly 11%. This is a “weakening” in impetus compared with the years of particularly strong growth, 2003 and 2004, in each of which world container trade grew by over 14%.
In contrast, container transport comprises just the number of loaded containers that are finally unloaded at their port of destination. Because of the increasing proportion of transhipment traffic, container handling, which e.g. also includes the handling of empty containers, is, in absolute terms (measured in TEU) considerably larger than container transport (2005: 400 million TEU compared with 114 million TEU). The proportion of transhipment traffic rose from 11% of total container handling in 1980 to over 27% last year. In comparison, the proportion of empty containers handled in this period remained largely constant, at about 20%. The shipping and charter companies succeeded in keeping the number of empty containers at a relatively low level by efficient use of ships and by grouping transport at the large container ports. This is important insofar as, in the last year, each additional percentage point of empty container transport would have cost the shipping companies worldwide USD 650 million.
As with container transport, container handling also recorded a slightly slower level of growth in the last year. Global container handling increased by over 11% in 2005, while in 2003 and 2004 the growth rate was around 14%. As a whole, however, the exceptional performance of this sector continued even last year. As a result of the extremely high dynamics of container shipping, this sector expanded its share of all seaborne trade during the last few years. In terms of gross tonnage, the proportion of container ships rose from 8% (1995) to over 14% last year. As containers tend to be used for the transport of high-value goods, their proportion of seaborne trade by value should be considerably higher. Taking into account the dynamic growth of container shipping in the last few years, its proportion of just over 14% of the total tonnage in seaborne trade may appear to be surprisingly low. However, it must be taken into account that, measured by weight, oil tankers and bulk carriers (e.g. coal, ore) are considerably more significant in global shipping. Oil tankers have a 31% share of total gross tonnage and bulk carriers just under 29%. In addition, compared with the other types of maritime transport, container shipping is still a young sector.
