BIIMCO / ISF MANPOWER 2005 UPDATE The worldwide demand for
and supply of seafarers
SUMMARY The BIMCO/ISF Manpower Updates are regarded as the most comprehensive assessment of global supply of and demand for merchant seafarers. This report builds on studies conducted in 1990, 1995 and 2000. It has two main purposes: to describe the current worldwide supply and The 2005 Update is based on data collected from questionnaires sent to governments and shipping companies, and again incorporates senior executives' and maritime administrations' views and academic analysis (provided by the Warwick Institute for Employment Research).
This Summary outlines the key conclusions and highlights key issues arising.
KEY CONCLUSIONS
Supply in 2005
An updated estimate of global seafarer supply has been produced based on the most recent national statistics provided by authorities in almost all principal labour supply and other maritime countries. The worldwide supply of seafarers in 2005 is estimated to be 466,000 officers and 721,000 ratings. The OECD countries (North America, Western Europe, Japan etc.) remain an important source of officers, although Eastern Europe has become increasingly significant with a large increase in officer numbers. The Far East and South East Asia (the "Far East"), and the Indian sub-continent remain the largest sources of supply of ratings and are rapidly becoming a key source of officers.
Demand in 2005
As in previous studies a computer model has been used to produce global demand estimates. This involves reviewing the number, size and type of ships in the world fleet, as well as revised estimates of manning levels and back-up ratios currently applicable to different national fleets.
The Seafarers' International Research Centre (SIRC) database has also been used to verify manning levels based on crew lists. The initial demand estimate combines fleet size and manning scale information and has been calibrated to be consistent with the supply estimates. The calibration is based on the overall supply/demand balance estimates derived from comprehensive data supplied by around 100 companies. The current estimate of worldwide demand for seafarers is 476,000 officers and wastage and attrition estimates.
Supply / Demand Balance 2005
The estimates in the table below indicate a modest theoretical worldwide shortfall of 10,000 officers or 2 % of the total workforce.
A significant overall surplus is estimated for ratings , although doubts exist as to how many are available for international service.
The calculated officer shortfall is less severe than in 2000. There is some evidence of improved supply, which in the Indian sub-continent and Far East reflects increased levels of maritime training. However, some of the main supply increases are due to one-off factors, such as better data reporting following the implementation of STCW 95 and the entry of Eastern European although the overall officer shortage is less marked than in 2000, some specialised ships and certain ranks are experiencing severe shortages. Early retirement is a factor in some countries.
The total number of ships grew by 1 % per annum between 2000 and 2005, which is in line with previous predictions, but there has been a significant increase in the number of larger vessels.
The overall scale of demand for officers is higher than predicted in 2000, and seafarer demand appears to have grown more rapidly than predicted in 2000 but supply has also increased significantly.
In practice, the overall officer shortfall is probably more problematic than an estimated shortfall of 2% suggests, bearing in mind the obstacles preventing surpluses of some nationalities from compensating shortages elsewhere. Barriers include cultural and language differences, lack of international experience and seafarer nationality restrictions imposed by some flags.
Supply and Demand in 2005
Table S.1: Demand Supply Summary, 2005
| |
Supply |
Demand |
Balance |
| |
(000s) |
(000s) |
(000s) |
| Officers |
466 |
476 |
-10 |
| Ratings |
721 |
586 |
135 |
Future Supply / Demand Balances
The Update presents various global supply / demand balance scenarios for the future. However, the central or "benchmark" scenario represents the most likely trends based on recent developments and the views of senior shipping executives. This allows for a modest expected increase in the number of ships in the world fleet of around 1 % per annum (the growth rate over the past decade). It assumes that recruitment and wastage rates will remain similar to those experienced over the past five years, based on data reported.
Despite these conservative assumptions, the current moderate officer shortage will become more severe unless maritime training is further increased and measures are taken to address wastage rates.
The forecast is sensitive to various factors explored more fully in the main report, and this is illustrated briefly by the graphical examples attached to this Summary. Despite these uncertainties, the prospects of increased demand and diminishing supply present an unfavourable situation for the industry
CONCLUSION
The 2005 Update suggests that there is a modest shortage of officers worldwide and a continuing surplus of ratings. While the shortfall of officers is smaller than estimated in 2000, certain sectors of the industry have experienced very severe shortages, and the continuing growth of the world fleet, combined with work pressures on crews, indicate that demand for qualified seafarers will continue to increase over the next decade. This demand will only be met if the increase in levels of recruitment and training is maintained and if wastage rates are reduced.
Source: BIMCO/ISF estimates.
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